To paraphrase our website: “They all come back to Steam.” Expecting your customers to go to another, worse store despite your attempts to go it alone with your own store. We’ve seen publisher after publisher admit that “is probably not ideal for sales.”
And even as wayward Diablos, Call of Duty, Assassin’s Creeds, and Red Dead Redemptions return to the nightmarish market consolidation of Valve’s digital fiefdom, the outliers remain. Through our expertise, insight, and sense of the atmosphere, we speculated on the likelihood that some of the more die-hard Steam holdouts might one day join this group.
world of warcraft
(Image source: Blizzard)
Original release date: November 2004
Chance of being released on Steam: 30%
Rationale: I would have made the odds even lower if other recent Activision-Blizzard games like Diablo 4 and Overwatch 2 hadn’t been meekly shuffled onto Steam. My suspicions, without any technical basis, are that the technology that handles WoW’s various subscriptions, character services, and cosmetics offerings is being developed in parallel with the current Battle.net, so Blizzard’s backend I think they are completely intertwined.
Diablo 4 and Modern Warfare 2 could have been developed to allow some degree of portability between storefronts, had they understood that an eventual Steam release was a realistic possibility . World of Warcraft, on the other hand, is 20 years worth of gnarled, tangled technology, and refurbishing it could very well blow up an auction house or cause a server-tier apocalypse.
I think porting WoW to Steam will take months, if not years, of work. That reward means Steam will receive a portion of the revenue from players who have already comfortably accessed WoW through Battle.net for 20 years. Needless to say, Blizzard doesn’t want to share 30% of those monthly WoW subscriptions. This is an arrangement not shared by other games.
altima
(Image credit: Origin)
Original release date: 1981
Chance of being released on Steam: 60%
Rationale: Given that the Ultima games helped formalize our expectations of the RPG genre, we wouldn’t have gotten our hands on Baldur’s Gate 3 if it weren’t for Swen Wincke’s obsession with Ultima 7. I wouldn’t have put it in there. This feels like a bit of a cosmic injustice. This series was not available on Steam. Admittedly, making a game dating back to the early ’80s playable on modern PC hardware has its challenges. However, the Ultima game is available on both the EA app and GOG, so it looks like much of that work has already been done.
I initially thought it was unlikely that Ultima would ever make it to Steam, and was going to blame series ownership on EA for the bleak outlook. EA started releasing games on Steam again in 2019, mostly consisting of new releases and the occasional Mass Effect Legendary Edition. But in 2024, EA appears to be reevaluating its catalog of classic titles with Steam releases like Populous, Command & Conquer, and Sid Meier’s Alpha Centauri.
With any luck, EA will eventually turn to Lord British territory. I still have a lot of room for disappointment.
Genshin, Honkai: Star Rail, Zenless Zone Zero
(Image provided by miHoYo)
Original release date: September 2020, April 2023, July 2024
Chance of being released on Steam: 40%
Rationale: This is a difficult problem. On the one hand, MiHoYo has built an entire ecosystem for its gacha repertoire, with its own launcher and bespoke social media platform to get hooked on your favorite characters. All of this is managed under the aptly named publishing subsidiary HoYverse. It’s a world of its own, built solely around the dark fascination of anime characters gambling. What do I need Steam for?
And yet, MiHoYo’s gachas are already available in other stores. These aren’t just available in Google or Apple’s app stores. Also available in the Epic Games Store. Either Epic and MiHoYo signed one of those exclusive deals that CEO Tim Sweeney called a “bad investment,” or Epic’s 12% revenue cut will bring Genshin Impact right under the noses of players. It’s unclear whether it just seemed like a price worth paying for it. Restart Fortnite or scroll through the store’s home page to find this week’s free games.
If it’s the latter, a massive 30% revenue drop on Steam could be too much of a deterrent for MiHoYo, unless it’s having trouble finding users elsewhere. That calculus might change one day if MiHoYo becomes more eager to acquire new players, but that hasn’t happened yet.
fortnite
(Image credit: Epic Games)
Original release date: July 2017
Chance of being released on Steam: 2%
Rationale: Not while Tim Sweeney has a say in this matter. Epic has been waging a long legal battle against Google and Apple to prevent anyone else from cutting revenue from Fortnite’s golden calf. If Fortnite brought in enough money for Epic to safely extract from the mobile store’s hundreds of millions of potential users while it was being fought in court, the publisher would have no reason to put it on Steam, just Valve. Because they can claim 30% of the pie. . Otherwise, the Epic Games Store may struggle to turn a profit, but as long as Epic is a way to earn V-back revenue without splitting the wealth, Fortnite will be here to stay.
League of Legends, Teamfight Tactics, Valorant, 2XKO
(Image source: Riot Games)
Original release date: October 2009, June 2019, June 2020, TBA
Chance of being released on Steam: 15%
Rationale: Riot hasn’t joined Epic in the lawsuit seeking a way to release games on Google or Apple phones without platform fees, but my estimation here is consistent with Fortnite’s assessment: General In general, I think Riot is doing too well with League skins and Valorant guns that 30% of that revenue goes to Valve. I think that also applies to the fighting game “2XKO.”
It doesn’t help that Valve’s own Counter-Strike 2 and Dota 2 are League and Valorant’s biggest competitors. Giving away nearly a third of your sales is bad enough without directly enriching the games people are playing on your behalf.
The main reason I think Riots games are a little more likely to come to Steam is because Riots is already friendly with other platforms. Mobile versions of League of Legends and Teamfight Tactics are in both app stores, Valorant is on Game Pass, and Riot recently went all-in on console ports of Valorant. Not to mention, the company already publishes League of Legends spinoffs like Ruined King and Song of Nunu under its Riot Forge label. But considering Riot shut down Riot Forge earlier this year, it doesn’t really matter if it was shut down in the first place.
minecraft
(Image source: Mojang)
Original release date: November 2011
Chance of being released on Steam: 50%
Rationale: Compared to most entries on this list, the Steam release of Minecraft isn’t all that surprising to me. Minecraft Dungeons and Minecraft Legends are already available on Steam, and Minecraft’s Bedrock Edition is available on all PlayStation, Nintendo, and mobile platforms despite Microsoft ownership.
However, I kept it an even number for two reasons. One is that on PC, both the Java and Bedrock editions come with a launcher. Given how uncomfortable it is to differentiate between these two, let alone understand when and where it’s installed, I don’t think this will be the easiest Steam integration. Second, I don’t know how many people are interested in playing Minecraft if they don’t already own it on their PC in some form.
Still, I’m sure some people are willing to pay for Steam just to avoid the confusion that often comes with installing games from the Microsoft Store.
star citizen
(Image credit: Roberts Space Industries)
Original release date: First playable module August 2013
Chance of being released on Steam: 15%
Rationale: Star Citizen’s infamous crowdfunding campaign raised millions of dollars and said it would deliver “everything that made Wing Commander and Privateer/Freelancer special” through a persistent simulation universe. We promised, but some say 2024 is still largely theoretical.
Star Citizen, along with the Squadron 42 spin-off, is successfully monetized on the merits of a game that may one day become one, despite the ever-changing RSI timeline. With its own launcher and “pledge store” already in place, this is a scheme that RSI is happy to be able to keep profitable, and the potential for refund claims and customer dissatisfaction is piling up, so Valve I don’t think they would be willing to bear the brunt of it. .
