The fierce battle over housing will intensify and decide the outcome of the next federal election, as Labor, Coalition and the Greens target voters who believe they are locked out of home ownership for life.
The great Australian dream of owning your own home has long been extinguished. There’s nothing new about this. But the crisis is now deep-rooted and is sure to cause major generational disruption, threatening to change the outcome of the vote and damage the government at the next poll.
The Green Party has succeeded in putting housing on the mainstream political radar. The Liberal Party is currently strategizing how it can become a relevant and appealing party to young voters, which it has lost significantly, but it is struggling with its own lack of action on this vital issue. He has informally acknowledged that he had done so and is participating in the discussion.
Dutton and Chandler-Mather are learning the hard way that housing and energy issues are not easy to solve.
In the center stands the Albanian government. Hurt by their crazy and brave promise to reform negative gearing in 2019, which led to an election defeat, they may revisit controversial changes to property ownership tax. He continues to run away from all suggestions that he cannot do so.
Labor insiders privately admit that they are under political fire over the housing issue, and various solutions are being considered internally to deal with it.
He is also deeply dissatisfied with the lack of recognition given to a series of policies that Australia has already announced. There are a total of 17 policies and $26 billion in new funding to address Australia’s housing crisis.
Labor argued the answer to this problem was supply, supply and more supply. But supply is not coming fast enough and immigration numbers are putting further strain on the market.
A big headache for the government
Some Labor insiders have told me they believe a shake-up, or even a reshuffle, is needed to ensure that one of the Labor Party’s best communicators takes on the role of housing minister. Housing Minister Julie Collins is one of the government’s lesser-known figures and has been outsmarted by Green Party housing spokesperson Max Chandler-Mather to take the lead on this lightning rod issue, much to the Government’s constant irritation.
Some of Collins’ colleagues describe her as a solid pastor. Some say she barely cuts through where it matters most. However, most agree that the government needs to take collective responsibility for the housing crisis and debate, and the impending May budget presents a key opportunity.
Still, this reset needs to go deeper than communication.
Housing Minister Julie Collins’ colleagues describe her as a solid minister. (ABC News: Adam Kennedy)
Labor has implemented several housing policies, including the Help to Buy scheme, which is designed to support 10,000 homebuyers a year through shared equity. The bill is currently stalled in parliament because the Coalition and the Greens do not support it.
“We know there’s a lot of work to do,” Collins told Sky News at the weekend. “Obviously, it’s very unhelpful for the Liberals to vote against more housing in parliament. What I would say to the Liberals is that instead of voting against housing policy at every opportunity, That should be supported.”
High immigration numbers and news that new housing construction is behind schedule have combined to cause major headaches for the government this week and launch a strong line of attack against the opposition.
The government is working with states and territories to meet the housing agreement target of 1.2 million homes over five years, but a shortage of construction workers and state infrastructure projects are straining workers. , the construction industry is concerned about its supply capacity. The government has offered $3.5 billion to state and local councils to speed up construction, but some fear they won’t be able to meet their targets starting in the coming months.
Where is the Union?
Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor asked during Question Time why Australia’s adult population has grown by more than a million people since the Albanian government came to power, but the number of new homes being built has only increased by a quarter of that amount. asked.
I cut deep. NDIS and Government Services Minister Bill Shorten – known for calling a spade a spade – said there was a “crisis” in how to balance immigration and housing.
The government has announced it will start tightening visa rules for international students from this weekend, raising English language requirements for student and graduate visas. The government will also have the power to stop recruiting international students if institutions repeatedly breach the rules.
“But the reality is that there is a crisis in terms of how to balance immigration and housing,” Shorten said.
Andrew Bragg was announced as shadow permanent secretary for homeownership in Peter Dutton’s March reshuffle.
Coalition officials privately acknowledge that they were too slow to address the issue. Given that the housing crisis dominated the debate, it is surprising that it took the Coalition so long to develop targeted policies to address it.
They are now looking to narrow their focus with Peter Dutton announcing the appointment of Andrew Bragg as shadow deputy secretary for home ownership in the March reshuffle.
Mr Bragg has since floated the idea that homeowners should be able to pay their super into a mortgage offset account. It aims to expand on the Coalition’s housing policy announced by Prime Minister Scott Morrison in 2022, allowing first home buyers to use their super to buy. property.
Mr Bragg says he will now encourage first home buyers to take out more than the proposed $50,000 before the 2022 election. He dismisses criticism from some experts that this will only increase house prices, but not all Liberal members are convinced the policy has mainstream appeal. Some fear the policy will be portrayed as youth attacks on supermarkets, a claim they dispute. Many believe the party needs to explore other policy responses.
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“Who are we fighting for?”
Menzies MP Keith Wolahan believes the revival of the collapsed Liberal Party depends on expanding home ownership rights. He is one of the few Coalition MPs prepared to put the tax treatment of housing as an investment vehicle on the table and go where many people are concerned.
His leader, Peter Dutton, is not ready to go there. But Wolahan, a millennial, says the crisis requires a fundamental rethink.
“The disconnect between average wages and median house prices risks crushing the Australian dream,” he tells me. “Success in life will be less about hard work and more about the lottery of birth and a ‘good marriage.’ Our children should learn the works of Jane Austen, and they should be forced to read them.” Not.”
Liberal MP Keith Wolahan says a fundamental rethinking of the housing crisis is needed.
The government needs to answer this question, he says: “Is the residential property market just another investment class? If the government’s answer is an unconditional ‘yes’, then we need to “We will have a high level of investment” – a higher density of rental housing (real estate) than owned housing (housing) for families. ”
Conversely, Wolahan says, “If we were serious about home ownership and aspirations, we would pursue policies that increase supply and flip the hands of first home buyers rather than investors. “There is now an imbalance, especially for established stocks.” This raises the political question of who to fight for. ”
Major parties will need to address this issue if they want to sway young voters.
Demographics are destiny. And then comes the demographic freight train for both sides.
I would like to leave you with a quote from the Australian Election Study analysis of the 2022 election that puts this challenge in stark terms.
“How the Coalition deals with this overwhelming lack of support among young people is perhaps the single biggest issue facing Australian politics.”
Patricia Calvelas is the host of Q+A addressing the housing crisis on ABC TV, RN Breakfast tonight at 9:35pm, and co-host of the podcast Party Room.
