Australia’s high goal conceding rate
In one of the greatest comebacks in Olympic soccer history, Australia managed to turn a 5-2 deficit against Zambia into a 6-5 victory. Australia will look to build on their winning streak when they face the United States in their final group stage match on Wednesday.
The USWNT is off to an overwhelming start with two wins and one goal conceded. The Matildas may need to get a good result against the United States in order to advance to the quarterfinals. But it won’t be easy, especially since Australia have conceded eight times in two games.
Ahead of the match, we preview Australia vs. USA women’s soccer odds.
USA vs Australia
Record: USA (2-0-0), Australia (1-0-1)
When: Wednesday, July 31st, 3:00 PM ET
Location: Stade Vélodrome, Marseille, France
Stream: NBC Sports
Australia vs USA match
The USA is 28-5-1 all-time against Australia, with the USWNT’s only loss coming at the 2017 Tournament of Nations. These teams last met in a friendly in 2021, ending in a tie with one goal each.
At Tokyo 2020, these teams were tied in the group stage, with the USA winning 4-3 against the Matildas for the bronze medal.
This will be the fourth women’s soccer match between Australia and the United States at the Olympics, with the United States having a 1-2-0 record in the past three.
Silencing USWNT critics
There were also questions about America’s decisiveness heading into the Olympics. But they have so far silenced doubters. In their last match before the Olympics, the USWNT failed to score against Costa Rica. In the two games on the 2024 Olympic schedule, the U.S. outscored its opponents 7-1.
Key forward Sophia Smith was an injury doubt in Sunday’s game against Germany, but returned in time for the game. Smith scored twice in the 4-1 win, with Mallory Swanson and Lynn Williams also scoring. Swanson scored three goals in two games and was an integral part of the team’s success. 2024 Olympic Schedule
America’s defense has also held up well, conceding just one goal in six games under coach Emma Hayes. But news about the 2024 Olympics on Sunday included an injury to centre-back Tianna Davidson. Davidson’s status for Wednesday’s game is unknown, with Emily Sonnet potentially taking her place.
The USWNT will advance to the quarterfinals regardless of Wednesday’s result, but will be looking for another win. Trinity Rodman is causing havoc on the right wing and Australia will struggle to contain her.
Defense is a big issue for Australia
Just 56 minutes into the match between Australia and Zambia, the Matildas had already conceded five goals. Australia pulled off an unlikely comeback in the 34th minute and stoppage time, but questions remain about their defense in this match.
Left-back Steph Catley scored two vital goals in the 6-5 come-from-behind victory, but she is part of a backline that has conceded eight goals in two games. Australia lost 3-0 to Germany in the opening game of the Olympics, but the result could have been much better.
The over in Australia’s game has become some of the best bets in football today, but Toni Gustafsson may need to make a tactical adjustment. Matilda appears highly vulnerable to counterattack, and the United States could exploit that weakness.
Australia tend to concede goals against the world’s top teams, but their last two games have been inexplicable. In the five official matches played in 2024 leading up to the Olympics, Australia had conceded just one goal. Given their defensive woes, it would be a shock if they could get anything close to a clean sheet here.
Australia vs USA match analysis and odds
It’s tough to bet on the USA considering they are -175 favorites to win Wednesday’s game and have won their first two Olympics. Regardless of Wednesday’s outcome, the USWNT will likely win the group, but don’t expect them to ease off on the gas.
The Australia vs. USA women’s soccer odds list the USA as one-goal favorites to win. Bettors can take America -1 or Australia +1 at -110 odds respectively. The Matildas are heading into this match knowing that a loss alone may mean they won’t advance to the quarter-finals. However, if they draw, they will be at least one of the top two third-place teams and advance.
Australia are +380 underdogs, while a draw is +340. Odds for less than 3 goals are -125, but 11 goals were scored in the Matildas’ last game. The Americans have scored three goals in the first half of both games so far, and believe they can succeed against Australia, which has a shaky defense.
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